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The past seemed less complicated. Match number four of Scotland and New Zealand. A heaving Murrayfield, a 0-0 draw, winter of 1964. Euphoria at full-time. A pitch invasion to reflect the home team's momentous achievement.

Having beaten Ireland, Wales and England, the All Blacks had at last been stopped in a international match.

A contemporary reporter was nearly overcome with excitement. "A game that no-one who saw it will ever forget," he announced excitedly and somewhat optimistically. "A match in which Scotland saved the honour of Britain."

Exiting the ground after the match, home supporters would have had hope for the future. Multiple efforts to defeat the All Blacks and zero victories, but obvious indications that success might be imminent.

A few seasons after, the All Blacks defeated Scotland. Five years after that, history repeated itself. Another three years passed, same story. Another five-year gap and, yes, the pattern continued.

Modern Encounters

Twenty games since then later. Twenty All Black wins. Across New Zealand and beyond, Auckland to Cardiff - the landscapes have changed but results remain consistent.

During his tenure, Gregor Townsend has broken winless streaks in Paris, Cardiff and Twickenham, but this challenge is different. Over a century of matches. One of sport's greatest hoodoos.

Team News

Over the past seasons the landslide 20, 30 and 40-point wins have narrowed to closer margins in recent encounters, but the All Blacks always find a way.

Through their brilliance, their power, their chicanery, they get the job done.

As match day approaches where positive expectations that some may have held for Scottish success is probably beginning to fade. Hope is colliding with history.

Missing Players

Thursday brought news that Zander Fagerson hadn't made it. To Scottish ambitions it was like a kick in the guts.

The prop has been absent since spring, but he's exceptional and had he been declared fit then his absence from play would not have been a massive concern.

In an era when most props are replaced long before the hour-mark, his endurance stands out. No tighthead played nearly as many minutes in the Six Nations.

Replacement Concerns

Another absence is Jones but Rory Hutchinson is flying form with his club. There's no such quality replacing big Zander. While Rae is capable, his international experience consists of limited game time.

And when Rae is finished, there's Elliot Millar-Mills to come on. While competent, there's little to suggest that he can match New Zealand's standard.

Coaching Choices

Townsend has sprung surprises, partly expected, some curious. Kyle Steyn's game-management intelligence replaces van der Merwe's physical approach.

The back row has no recognisable truffle dog, Rory Darge starting on the bench. Onyeama-Christie's omission is notable.

Past Encounters

Facing the Irish, the All Blacks secured the first leg of what they hope will be an undefeated tour. They started slowly, despite numerical advantage, but their final surge secured victory.

Combined with Irish vulnerabilities, offensive struggles, their line-out and their scrum collapsing.

Statistical Analysis

Despite late-game surges, the last 20 minutes is not where New Zealand typically dominates. Across international matches recently, they've accumulated scores in opening periods and fewer after halftime.

They've scored 39 in the first quarter, excellent second quarters, 26 in the third and 34 in the fourth. They come exploding out of the traps.

Required Performance

Against Scotland in 2022, New Zealand scored early in the opening seven minutes. Establishing early dominance, the game looked done. Scotland fought back impressively to dominate temporarily.

The clear message is that, figuratively speaking, Scotland needs sustained pressure from kickoff - and keep it there.

Over the last decade, the teams that have managed to beat New Zealand have needed to score in the high-20s. Scottish scoring only occasionally against the All Blacks.

Final Analysis

Everything has to go right for Scotland. Absolutely everything. If they start butchering chances early on then hopes fade. Disciplinary issues? Repeated infringements? A battered scrum? The game is lost.

With perfect execution? Explosive start. A raucous crowd. Bedlam. Clinical finishing. Russell being Russell. Graham being Graham.

Optimistic thinking, maybe. Consistent performance has been elusive from the Scottish team that would be sufficient against New Zealand. If it's in there, now is the moment; a century is sufficient.